Are California’s avocados in danger of being left off some restaurant menus?

According to KKTV News, scientists predict climate change will bring hotter weather and cause a 40 percent drop in California’s avocado production over the next three decades. This could be a problem for restaurants such as Chipotle, which uses 35 million pounds of avocados per year.

Chipotle has been discussing the possible avocado shortage, and whether or not it would keep the item and hike up the price, or temporarily suspend the item.

Avocado trees need approximately 40 to 50 inches of rain per year, according to SF Gate Home Guides. Young trees in the summer need several weekly applications of between five to 20 gallons of water. Without enough water, avocado trees can suffer from root rot and turn yellow, and are smaller in stature, which is not good for avocado production.

Diablo Valley College student Amber Lawrence said she would be less likely to go to restaurants such as Chipotle if they stopped selling guacamole.

“Even if the prices for guacamole were to go up, I would not pay it,” Lawrence said. “I’d have to learn to live without it if it was such a high cost.”

DVC student Sydney Russell said she would still go to Chipotle, but not as often.

“Guacamole is like a staple ingredient of Chipotle,” she said.

Russell also feels guacamole is already too expensive and would not pay any more for it.

Fairfield Chipotle Manager Felicia Kenny said that about six months ago the company was notified of a potential avocado shortage, but Chipotle re-sourced its avocados and was still able to serve guacamole to its customers.

“The company is really good at knowing when a shortage is going to hit, and they will let us know ahead of time,” Kenny said.

She also reassured customers that they would not be charged more for guacamole than the current$1.95. Instead, the chain would temporarily suspend the serving of guacamole if the time comes.

The California drought is resulting in avocados being imported from other countries such as Chile and Mexico, according to Raley’s produce employee Choawanee Jirasritumrong.

“In California’s off-season, we get our avocados from Mexico, which is good because they don’t travel too far and they are still good quality,” Jirasritumrong said.

Avocado production might be okay at the moment, but if the drought continues, we could be looking at outrageous prices at our favorite restaurants and grocery stores.