After President Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election, President Donald Trump left office as one of the most unpopular presidents in modern history: impeached twice, facing multiple felony charges, and widely recognized for inciting the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol.
Yet four years later, Trump came back to sweep all seven swing states and become the first Republican to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004. Many may interpret these turns of events as another dramatic swing of the American political pendulum.
But are voters, in deciding these elections, actually debating who they want to see in power, and causing the so-called pendulum to shift? Or is the “political pendulum” theory little more than a convenient metaphor to measure giant U.S. power shifts?
Diablo Valley College political science professor Chris Longenecker argues that the pendulum idea is misleading, as it suggests that power shifts are inevitable. Instead, he sees politics as a struggle for power rather than a “predictable” swing between Democrats and Republicans.
“If there were a pendulum moving back and forth, it’s like we’d just be passengers with no material impact on the direction of political movement,” said Longenecker in a recent interview with The Inquirer. “But we’re not. It’s a contest for power.”
The U.S. political system creates the illusion of a pendulum, due to its frequently held federal elections. Americans vote for all 435 House of Representatives seats and a third of the U.S. Senate seats every two years, allowing angry voters to respond to the party in power. Generally, when one party is in control, the opposition is more energized to get its voters out to the polls, while disillusioned voters tend to stay home or, in some cases, switch parties.
During Trump’s first term, the 2018 midterm elections resulted in a “blue wave” for Democrats, who energized their voter base to regain control of the House. Liberals were mobilized by the Trump administration’s chaotic hold on power and showed up at the polls.
Fast forward to June 2022, when the U.S. Supreme Court issued its decision on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, reversing the landmark Roe v. Wade case and making abortion access an issue for states to decide. The reaction from voters was unambiguous: a Gallup poll from June 2024 found that 60 percent of Americans still saw the overturning of Roe as a “bad thing,” and supported access to the abortion pill, mifepristone.
As states began to roll out their abortion bans, voters became angry — although their anger wasn’t enough to swing the 2024 election back in Democrats’ favor.
“Being angry is a great mobilizing force,” said Longenecker. “When people are upset, they’ll go to the polls and try to vote for change.”
And that may be the point: pendulums don’t swing, rather, voters react.
What should have been a sweeping “red tsunami” for Republicans in 2022 became a disappointing “red splash.”
More recently, after the U.S. saw a major swing to the right in 2024, Democrats have been able to secure important victories in statewide elections already in 2025.
For example, Iowa voters elected Mike Zimmer in January’s special election, flipping a state senate seat that went for Trump by 21 points in November. In March, another Democrat, James Malone, was able to win a Pennsylvania state senate seat by 0.9 percent, or just 482 votes, giving his party a majority in the state senate. This upset, too, came after his county voted for Trump by 15 points in the fall.
This seems to be a reaction to the Trump administration’s first months back in power, which have included the dismantling of the Department of Education, mass layoffs spearheaded by Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and other controversial moves.
Republicans are already seeing their success from 2024 triggering a backlash, as early upsets signal how quickly voters can turn against the party in power. A pendulum wouldn’t swing back on its own so quickly. The voters are mobilizing and reacting to real struggles, in real time.
“Politics is about contesting for power,” said Longenecker. “Nothing is inevitable.”