Da Glossary of Chessboxin’ (Part 2)

Welcome back faithful readers, I hope that you all enjoyed the Week 1 action as much as I did. The ‘Niners shut down the best offense in football, and many of my preseason picks jumped into prominence. It wasn’t a week without mistakes, disappointment and bad decisions informed by “expert” opinions (I started Toby Gerhart: 6 carries, 18 yards and one catch for 8; over Adrian Peterson: 17 carries, 84 yards, 2 TD’s). In one league, I even forgot to put a Kicker into my starting lineup, while my opponent started David Akers opposite the blank spot, who made history by bouncing a 63 yard attempt through the uprights (In spite of this, I still managed to win).

If your first week wasn’t as rife with validation and triumph as mine was, let me be the first to say- Don’t Panic. The Fantasy Season is long and the players who lump points onto the board in Week 1, seldom continue to produce at that level. Stand by your picks, make smart trades, buy low, sell high and never mistake the “Projections” for facts. Fantasy Football is a guessing game, everyone makes mistakes, everyone leaves points on the bench, everyone invests in over-valued markets from time to time. Thesis for week 2: “Don’t Panic”.

Double-Dipping- verb- This term is used to describe the practice of starting potent QB/WR combos from the same team within your starting lineup. If your starting QB tosses a dime into the arms of your receiver for a touchdown- you score twice! (See also: Matthew Stafford/ Calvin Johnson; Drew Brees/ Jimmy Graham; Tom Brady/ Rob Gronkowski; Aaron Rodgers/ Jordy Nelson).

Eye-ball Test- noun- This should be the only method of player valuations that you trust. Actually watch the games. You’ll learn more than you ever could from a stat sheet. You can recognize undervalued skill players getting a larger chunk of targets than their numbers suggest (Brandon Lloyd, Darren McFadden, Dexter McCluster), or overvalued players who just don’t seem to have the same explosiveness that they’ve been assumed to (Chris Johnson getting caught from behind by a 300 lb. Defensive End).

Stock- adjective- This is the accepted term used to describe a player’s perceived “Value” as it changes within the context of the season. Robert Griffin III’s stock is going through the roof this week, while Matthew Stafford’s is in freefall and Matt Forte’s stock looks higher this week than any other running back. Don’t buy into the inflated values of players that performed this week, keep the long view. The Fantasy Season is a game of chess, not checkers. Buy low, sell high.

To expand on the idea of “Stock Prices” as a means of player valuations, it is my distinct pleasure to present The PYNW Stock Watch for week one.

Sell High: These players jumped up onto many people’s radars on Sunday and their stock is rising. If you can add them, add them; if you can trade them at present value, even better.

Robert Griffin III (QB- Was)- Take that doubters! In the last moments leading up to the Week 1 matchup in New Orleans, the suspensions to several members of the Saint’s defense from the Bounty Scandal, were overturned. Sports writers everywhere jumped online to preach death and disappointment for RG3. Turns out, comparisons to Cam Newton weren’t such a stretch after all. Don’t expect these numbers every week, but the kid looks strong (In spite of all the concerns that he was too small to enjoy NFL success).

Alfred Morris (RB- Was)- Very few things present as many opportunities for a Running Back as a mobile Quarterback. RG3’s success yields success for his running back, and Mike Shanahan loves to pound the rock. Morris is another “Steal” player, who almost nobody was projecting carries for last week, but now he’s a waiver wire wonder. If you can nab Morris before the Dumb-Dumb in your league who drafted Roy Helu, leverage Morris’ overinflated value for your benefit.

Marcedes Lewis (TE- Jax)- Turns out, Justin Blackmon isn’t the second-coming of Megatron, not in week 1 at least. I’ve liked Lewis for several years now and used him more than a couple of times, as a sly bye week fill-in. From a purely physical standpoint, Lewis is everything that a QB could want in a tight-end. He’s got the size, the speed, the hands- so why aren’t more people high on him? Blaine Gabbert is still a nagging question mark- but with MJD running angry, the Jacksonville offense is going to get into the red zone. Good idea to invest in their primary red-zone target.

Buy Low: These are players that were likely drafted very high, but have disappointed in Week 1. I’m not going to waste space, bashing on players that I doubted before. This list is for players currently struggling, who I think are likely to turn it around before too long. In other words: buy low candidates.

Brandon Lloyd (WR-NE)- People panic in Fantasy Sports like crazy. Lloyd actually had eight targets in the game to lead the Patriots team in “looks”. Let me reiterate- Tom Brady threw the ball to first-year Patriot Brandon Lloyd more than any other receiver. More targets than Welker, Hernandez and Gronkowski. Don’t let the lack of a touchdown catch worry you on Lloyd, his stock is rising this week, but you can still buy low.

Darren McFadden (RB-Oak)- How bad did the Raiders look on Monday? Yuck. Somewhere, someone is going to HAVE to do something about that Offensive Line (Center in particular). Buy low if you can, but don’t sell. Things will get better, both for Raiders’ fans and for Run-DMC.

Chris Johnson (RB-Ten)- The only offense that looked worse than the Raiders’ this week. I still don’t understand why teams like Tennessee and Cleveland insist on starting rookies at QB in week 1 when they have vets like Hasselbeck and McCoy on the sidelines. If Locker misses time, I think CJ is going to have better success, but don’t overpay. Johnson is at best a top 25 RB after his poor effort in week 1, and someone who drafted him in the first round will be looking to unload for pennies on the dollar. His struggles will continue, but if you can land him for the cost of an RB3, he might make you feel really smart later. Just don’t treat him like the preseason rankings matter.

Thanks for reading! I’ll try to do better next week.

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